Washed Away: Thousands of Homes Lost to Rain Delays

Rain doesn’t just pause construction, it can throw an entire build off schedule. Crews are diverted. Concrete pours postponed. Excavators sit idle. Schedules slip and trades move on, while the cost quietly balloons. Now, new research commissioned by modular construction group Fleetwood Australia offers a glimpse into the scale of disruption, finding more than 84,000 single homes potentially lost to weather-related delays over the past five years. It predicts more are at risk as Australia’s wet seasons intensify. Fleetwood—one of the country’s largest makers of prefabricated buildings—commissioned the analysis by cross-referencing Bureau of Meteorology data with typical residential build timelines. It found almost 2000 rain-affected construction days between 2018 and 2023. Estimates of houses not built due to rain of more than 4mm ▲ Source: Fleetwood And the modelling was deliberately conservative. It excluded post-rain delays, other weather events such as wind and heat and all regional construction outside major cities. “If the trend continues between mid-2024 and 2029, 7 per cent of the Federal Government’s 1.2 million home target would not be achieved, simply due to wet weather,” Fleetwood chief executive Bruce Nicholson says. He says that’s why modular construction—occurring predominantly offsite in controlled environments—is becoming increasingly attractive to developers chasing speed and certainty. “We can build homes around three times faster than traditional builds, and we’ve known for a while that a big reason for that is we avoid rain delays building in a factory,” he says. “This analysis really helps to explain why.” Weekdays lost each year to rainfall above 4mm in the capitals ▲ Source: Fleetwood While modular and prefabricated construction still account for a fraction of Australia ’ s housing market, Nicholson believes the sector is gaining traction as timelines tighten and weather risks rise. “With bad weather seemingly increasing around the country, a national housing crisis that needs to be fixed, and low productivity in the construction sector, the case for modular construction couldn’t be stronger,” he says. Pressure to deliver For developers already grappling with rising costs and tighter deadlines, delays can be detrimental to project feasibility. “Once you lose your trade, you lose your schedule,” David Haller, a former Mirvac operations manager who’s overseen more than 7500 home builds, says. “And getting that time back? That’s the real problem.” One project aiming to prove modular’s potential is under way in Far North Queensland. At the site of a former drive-in cinema at 16–24 Windarra Street, Woree, a 490-apartment social and affordable housing development is being produced almost entirely offsite. ▲ A Modscape rendering of the Cairns social and affordable housing development at 16–24 Windarra Street, Woree. “They’re currently building a 490-apartment development in Cairns from their factory in Melbourne,” Damien Crough, executive chair of prefabAUS, the peak industry body for modular and off-site construction in Australia, says. “That’s 1008 modules, building this beautiful big affordable social housing development.” Led by FCC Construction Australia, with Modscape as the modular supplier, the project is backed by Housing Australia, the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility and the Queensland Government’s Housing Investment Fund. Completion is scheduled for late 2026. “That’s a partnership, government, private, and that’s where modular can really help,” Crough says. “And if you ’ re wanting to prove that quality isn’t an issue and you want it to last, you put it in Cairns. The weather’s pretty wild, that’s heat and rain.” Projects such as Cairns show what’s possible. But while modular’s potential is increasingly clear, widespread adoption remains elusive. Many developers still hesitate, not just because of upfront cost but because of persistent misconceptions around quality, flexibility and risk. ▲ Modular building components take shape offsite, sheltered from weather delays. Perception, price and pushback Crough says the most common objections come down to three things: quality, cost and design flexibility. “People think modular means cheap, inflexible or poor quality,” he says. “But our members build permanent, code-compliant buildings to the same standards as any traditional structure. “We’re not talking about demountables or container homes.” That stigma is beginning to shift, he says, but slowly. Haller, now director of consultancy firm Haller Consulting and a board member at prefabAUS, says the barriers are rarely technical. “Modular doesn’t fail on quality or capability. It struggles because of how we finance, procure and plan projects,” he says. “The traditional cost-per-square-metre model makes modular look more expensive. But that only tells half the story.” ▲ Prefabricated wall panels prepared offsite for modular housing projects. Instead, he argues for a lifecycle view, one that accounts for shorter delivery windows, reduced site overheads, fewer weather delays and more predictable cost outcomes. “The cost of running a business for 18 months versus nine is real,” Haller says. “Modular reduces build timeframes by up to 50 per cent. That directly reduces overhead. But most developers aren’t trained to think in those terms.” Cost comparisons are evolving too. While modular construction often costs $200–$400 a square metre more than traditional builds, Haller says factoring in shorter timelines and reduced overheads can quickly erase that gap. “You ’ re not managing a site for 18 months. That’s huge,” he says. Procurement processes are beginning to catch up. “There hasn ’ t been a contract that recognises building in a factory,” Crough says. “But that’s changing. Commonwealth Bank just updated its lending policy to support factory-built homes. That’s a major step.” ▲ Some industry leaders believe modular construction such as this could help Australia meet its housing targets. Exposure, not explanation Perceptions of quality are also being challenged. “People often have an old-fashioned view based on demountables or temporary buildings,” Crough says. “But today’s modular is a world away from that—high-spec, permanent and compliant with the National Construction Code.” He says some developers still associate modular with off-the-shelf or boxy designs but says the industry now supports full architectural flexibility, if engaged early. “If it’s designed from the outset for manufacture and assembly, modular can deliver stunning buildings and be extended, adapted or repurposed more easily too,” he says. Haller agrees modular isn’t a fit for every project. “It’s not always viable in low-margin house-and-land builds,” he says. “But in sectors like build-to-rent, remote housing, social infrastructure, it’s a no-brainer.” He says projects with repeated layouts—such as student accommodation, aged care or key-worker housing—are especially well-suited. “That’s where modular shines,” he says. “Repeated design, compressed programs, reliable outcomes.” The modular case is growing, but Crough says it won’t take off on data alone. “What it needs is exposure. Real examples. Real experience,” he says. “The more people see it, the more they get it.” And as rain events grow more frequent and the housing-delivery gap widens, developers may soon have fewer reasons—and less time—to wait. “We’re not saying modular replaces traditional building,” Crough says. “It’s just another tool. But if you want less risk, more certainty, and faster delivery, it’s a pretty powerful one.”

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